A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
